Published On: Fri, Jun 11th, 2021

Looming disaster for UK Government as dying days of “Covid-19 vaccine” rollout meets high refusal; must be behind threats to maintain vestiges of the economic blockade

As the reader will know, the idea that has been promoted here at FBEL is that whatever UK Government reckons is a restriction in the name of “Covid-19”, it has to be defied when it can be, or else whomever is enforcing it has to be boycotted. Although there used to be a good deal of attention paid to the detail of the economic blockade (see the “Coronavirus police state” series, for instance), there hasn’t been much for a very long time, and this has reflected the feeling that none of what is merely illusion conjured by spell (words) should be allowed any power.

Apparently, a number of restrictions were going to be lifted this month (including some which would run out automatically unless they are renewed), but now UK Government is wavering, and suggesting that a too high “case” rate would be to blame. Of course, no one should put any credence in “case” rates because they can be fixed or invented to suit. The real reason that we are seeing the threat of an extension appears to be because of a large refusal of the “Covid-19 vaccine” in the under 50s, and evidently more must be done in the way of psychological manipulation in order to encourage compliance.

Indeed, the latest Public Health England figures are revealing that UK Government might be having to deal with a veritable calamity, as uptake of the vaccine product in the 35 to 39 year-old category is seriously low, even compared with that in the 45 to 49 year-old one, which was to date the demographic most rebellious.

As of 6th June, 2,700,781 35-39 year-olds, in England, had received one jab.  According to Public Health England, using ONS figures, this represents 72% of the population. In the previous FBEL bulletin regarding “vaccine” take-up, it was predicted that the final figure for 35-39 year olds would not be dissimilar to the percentage for people aged 40-49 – which was bad enough for UK Government. However, because the percentage increase for the 35-39 year-old group this week [referring to the week to 6th June] stands at a dismal 5% (i.e. the cumulative total of first doses administered had increased by 5% of the total of the previous week) there is a great possibility of huge failure in this demographic.

Using observations in the numerical patterns that have already been established with regards week by week percentage increases, the author can visualise that, in the final analysis, between 77 and 80% (and definitely not much over 80% if it does breach that watermark) of 35-39 year-olds will receive at least one “Covid-19 vaccine” dose. Inversely, between 23 and 20% will not.

Confidence to make such a prediction has come from previously using the data to calculate that between 82% and 85% of people in the 40-49 super-category would receive a first dose. Three weeks after the May 23rd FBEL article where this idea was expressed (Millions Of Under-50s In England To Refuse “Covid-19 Vaccination”?), vaccine take-up in the 45-49s has flat-lined (meaning percentage increase is in the 0-1 range) with 84% having had the first dose. As for the 40-44 year olds, this is at 86.02%, with the percentage increase at 1.3%. With any increases now expected to be sub 1%, this won’t climb to 87 very fast, if at all. Granted, the figure is higher than the prediction, but then it was explained that there would be variation depending on how low the percentage change for this group would drop into single figures (something not known when the prediction was made).

In fact, a problem in making predictions like this is not being able to see the extent of what might be called “undead” percentage increases. This is when a maximum number in any demographic has essentially been reached, but it keeps increasing by a tiny fraction.  The phenomenon is well illustrated by looking at the 50-54 age group, for which a final tally was envisaged even before the April 22nd, which was the time when the following was written:

A prediction made in the previous bulletin that no more than 90% of 50-54 year olds would receive even one dose of vaccine product looks to be being realised. The percentage increase rate has flat lined at 0.6%, with only 88.8% of 50-54 year-olds having had the procedure.

The percentage for the 50 to 54 group actually crept up to 91% last week, and stands on 91.45. “Undead” percentage increases depend on how well the NHS can eek out recipients. The reader may well have heard of bus fares to “vaccine” centres being paid, or nurses making dedicated house calls to administer a dose.

In any case, at this moment the latest figures mean that the percentage of under-50s in England who will refuse the “Covid-19 vaccination” can be adjusted upwards from a prior estimate of around 15%.

As for the entire super-grouping of 50 year-olds and over, the figure for the specific 50 to 54 age category is the only consolation in what is otherwise a miserable and near universal demonstration of uncritical compliance. The average across all the 55-and-over groups is 97% take-up for the first dose. In fact, the divergence could very well have to do with the fact of a boundary between Baby-boomers and Generation-X falling in the midst of the sixth decade counting back from this year (to argue very simply, the Baby boomer generation had all of the opportunity, used it to ruin the future, and doesn’t need to pay the piper – at least, it didn’t until it rushed to get “vaccinated”).

The only good news from the over-54s is that there might be signs of “vaccine remorse”, with a fall off of people taking the second dose.

When talking about this grouping, there must be a distinction made between the 70 year-olds and over, and those younger. In the very oldest, what is happening is that there is a permanent deficit between first and second doses. For the 70 to 79 year-olds, the difference has stayed steady for several weeks at -23,000, and for the 80s-and-over, the difference has remained at about -90,000 for the same amount of time. These differences are obtained from ever-growing (even if it is “undead” growth) cumulative numbers for first and second doses, so it means that increase must be at the same rate for both. In turn, it signifies that the administration of second doses for these age groups is done. As explained in a previous article, the missing second doses will very likely be due to people having died, or being unable to have the further intervention. And unfortunately, because the programme is finished at this end of the age scale, we can’t use future Public Health England “vaccine” data to know the full extent of death after receipt of the vaccine product.

However, the interesting thing about this “minus doses” phenomenon is that it is about to occur to the 65-69 year-old age category, with only 91.26% having had the second dose (compared with the 95.03%, who have taken the first [this figure will only grow by hundredths, so consider it final]).  The difference in this group will mean refusal, or it will mean untimely death or illness, and  it is definitely going to be an interesting phenomenon to keep monitoring.

The same goes for the 60-64 year-old age group, with only 90.4% having had the second dose so far (compared with  99.5% who took the first). The second dosing for this group is yet a few weeks away from an “undead” percentage increase state of being, so it will be interesting to see how much lower than the nearly total first dose recipiency it will settle at. The only thing that can be said for the time being is that it’s probably going to be lower.  It’s far too early to tell what is going to happen in the categories between 50 and 59.

With all this said and done, perhaps the best way to understand the state of the “vaccine” rollout this week is through the fact that the number of all doses administered was down from last week, and at the lowest it’s been for several weeks.

To split this information up into its separate parts, the number of new first doses administered was down from 1,131,205 to 865,959, and this was the lowest it has been since the first week in May. This would mean return to the same sort of lower numbers that were constant through April and which were blamed on short supply of the product, but which were actually due to demand dropping off as the rollout moved into the period when under-50s were being invited to have their first dose (beginning with the heroic 45-49 year-olds).

As for the second dose, there has also been a lower number dispensed, but the fall off has been nothing as dramatic, with 2,224,616 having been administered last week, and 1,987,956 administered this. Again, this is going to be interesting to watch, because of all the second doses delivered in the last week, 53% went to those aged between 50 and 59 (inclusive), which means, roughly speaking, that half of that fall-off is the responsibility of this tricky (for UK Government) category. Come next week, there will be a better idea to be had about how the wind is blowing in terms of the second dose and the under-55s, which is really the danger super-grouping for UK Government. However, given that there has only been one other week since April when the second dose recipiency was lower than this week, and given that the rollout is moving into more natural territory for refusal, UK Government won’t see cause for feeling encouraged.

In fact, the comment was made in the previous bulletin that UK Government would be looking at the same data, and coming to its own similar conclusions, and this might have been why plans to legislate “vaccine passports” for “mass events” had been quietly dropped.

In this light, when we look at the conduct of UK Government, what we are seeing is it in retreat, seemingly because of large enough, and larger than expected refusal of the “vaccine”. We can say this because we have not just seen failure to create conditions most conducive for certification based on vaccination status, but we have also seen a reversion to having to threaten denial of the pathetically named, and misnomered “freedom day”, or the very phase that UK Government needs to move to where “vaccine” passports would be necessary (i.e. “building back better”). As such, here is recorded another moment of failure for UK Government. At this site – because, unlike alternative media, it doesn’t have assignment to dismay and demoralise  – the actual proneness of UK Government to be weak and unsuccessful is something that is noted and relayed to its therefore positive, empowered and activatable audience.

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Displaying 4 Comments
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  1. R J says:

    You must a statistician – or at least, an academic.

    No one else would write such a near-incomprehensible article!

    People want to read something in plain English, that flows without endless interruptions. Otherwise, they’ll give up, after reading a few lines of such turgid text.

    Your objective is laudable – but I strongly suggest that you concentrate on a summary of the vital key points – and then move on to giving your interpretation of what is happening, in a non-academic style that flows, and is easy to understand.

  2. Mara D says:

    If you haven’t had the jab, the NHS Immunisation Management Service ring you up to find out why.

    “Providing an outbound call centre, which uses analysis gathered by the immunisation uptake team on vaccination data from NIMs, identifies areas of low uptake and makes follow-up outbound telephone calls to those who haven’t been vaccinated. This outbound call centre service identifies the perceived and actual barriers people are experiencing in accessing the vaccination and seeks to mitigate this through answering queries or signposting.”

    I ended up putting the phone down on them.

T-shirts to protest compulsory face coverings - click image