Published On: Fri, May 6th, 2022

Predictably, crude perception management portrays Labour triumph at local elections, yet Starmer Project continues to falter

Coming soon on this page will be analysis of a number of, what were – according to corporate-media ahead of May 5th, key council election results in order to examine the turnout and the level of continuing collapse in support, not only for the Tories, about whom the headlines are predictably concerned this morning, but also for Labour.

For an example of what to expect, a cursory preliminary exploration shows that turnout in Bolton ranged from 22% to 40%, mostly being in the low 30s. Bolton was a popular choice of key battle ground for corporate-media, and it seems that Labour have lost a seat to the Tories.

In the meantime, here is the not-so-glowing report for both as stated on the BBC by John Curtice, “the leading elections expert”.

The Conservatives have suffered more or less the kind of loss of support that we might have anticipated given their current standing in the opinion polls.

They are on average around four points down compared with 2018, which was when most of the seats that we’ve been declaring overnight were last contested. And they’re actually down by rather more, by about six points compared with their performance in last year’s elections.

And this is probably going to end up looking like one of the weaker Conservative performances since the party’s been in power since 2010, although not necessarily the worst of all …

It is probably going to be the case that their tally of net losses is going to be somewhere between 200 and 300, which was the kind of figure that many commentators suggested would be the ballpark figure they would suffer if indeed their current position in the polls was reflected in the actual ballot box…

I would say that Labour are probably somewhat disappointed. I think they would have wanted to have clearly registered that their vote was up on what it was four years ago. Actually, [it is] probably marginally. If you just look at those wards where Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats fought – the real litmus test – in those wards Labour are very slightly down.

[They are] doing a bit better in London – probably up a point or so there on 2018. But, conversely therefore, [they are] actually doing a little bit worse outside of London.

Yes, Labour has certainly made progress as compared with last year but last year was a very poor performance – four points up on last year was not exactly surprising.

Therefore this is certainly not a local election performance that in any sense indicates a party that is on course for winning a general election with an overall majority. Indeed, I’m not sure whether you could even say that at this point it’s guaranteed, or necessarily on course, even to be the largest part of the next party in the next parliament. There is still an awful lot of work for Labour to do, not least perhaps in more leave-voting England.

Previously:

Parliament’s Growing Legitimacy Crisis: Don’t Vote In The Local Elections (link)

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  1. bob says:

    what posesses anyone to vote to continue their own abuse and dismemberment in small town britain is anyone’s guess – maybe put it down to stupidity???

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