The extremist minority coalition wins on Super Thursday by-election night: trouble ahead for UK Government

At the time of writing, it is but a few minutes after results at the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections have been announced. Wins for Labour and the Lib Dems respectively (as there only could have been, given the grand operation of conniving to produce them). As yet, there has only been time enough to do a few calculations, and fire off a few Twitter posts:

These posts are from the FBEL account, but copied from its notifications page, because the reader should note the larger than usual response; the twitter-cattle appear to think that open coalition between Labour and the Lib Dems is a good thing, and is being cheered (but then, they weren’t looking for satire). Anyone who has read the FBEL article, Starmer Project Woes Continue; Labour-Lib Dem Coalition Now Openly Discussed; More Reason Not To Vote In Tiverton & Honiton By-Election, knows that what is being referred to is how a Lib Dem – Labour coalition will bring more woe in Parliament’s ongoing legitimacy crisis. The trouble coming, as explained in just mentioned piece, is for UK Government – the City of London/military intelligence amalgam – not its current Tory front: the idiot masses just can’t wrap their puny brains around this real difference.

The fact that the Lib Dems scored their highest ever swing† from the Tories, out-performing the 1993 Christchurch effort (where 74.2% of the electorate turned out to vote) is suspicious, but it is probably explained by the fact that higher proportion of Labour voters look to have switched this time. According to the author’s rough calculations, 51% of the 2019 Labour vote went to the Lib Dems; this is much bigger than the proportion of the respective 2019 votes that switched at Chesham and Amersham (43.9%), and at North Shropshire (35.5%). Remember, this reckoning is strictly mathematical and doesn’t account for real motivational factors. That being said, the Tories still mustered 16,393 votes this time (versus 12,032 at North Shropshire), so this is suggestive of greater Labour switch. And, if the Labour switch-over vote hadn’t gone to the Lib Dems, the Tories could have been left the tallest tree standing. As stated in the above Twitter post – unfortunately mistaken by a lot of morons for jubilation – the coalition is very much on.

As might be expected, there was no attraction for Non Player Characters in the Twitter post that pointed out that the Starmer Project is a dead donkey:

The most important numbers of the night, of course, were the ones for turnout. At Tiverton and Honiton turnout was 52.3%, down 19.6 percent points. At Wakefield, turnout was 39.1%, down 25. These are huge percentage point drops, even if one of the figures has remained in “majority” territory. A twitter-cattle tried to tell yours truly that turnout was always down about 50% at by-elections from general elections – but this is patently not the case (see the table here). And again, it’s not only low numbers that are plaguing Fake Brexit era by-elections, it is the change in voter behaviour – which can be characterised as a collapse for the two parties that are the legs of UK Government agenda. The evidence is blatant in the events of last night and this morning: the Conservative party couldn’t muster a few more to win in either seat. Labour couldn’t win on its own. There’s trouble indeed if these can’t be made to walk. There’s bigger trouble exactly because it was the coalition that did win: a united front that represents an extremist minority, voted for by a minority – which does apply when the elections are treated as a unified statement, which is how politicians, punditry and corporate-media wants us to treat them – in a country turned sectarian as defined by the politics of the coalition. Terrible trouble for UK Government is ahead.

† This is an incorrect statement that came about by trying to get this piece out in a hurry, and relying on garbage produced by blue-tick twitter-cattle. The swing wasn’t historical, but the overturned majority was. The significance of this is discussed in a follow up article: [insert name when completed].