Kupyansk Direction: The Russians across the Oskil and at Zapadnoye?
Further to the recent FBEL article, In The Suburbs Of Kupyansk, which discussed a Russian advance towards that city on the Oskil River, there was an interesting detail included in the Russian Ministry of Defence’s map presented in the daily briefing of 23rd February.
As the reader can see from the extract below, the red shading protrudes beyond expectation at its most westerly point, and according to the author’s reckoning it puts the Russians west of the River Oskil, and abutting the settlement of Zapadnoye.
The situation is made clearer by the illustration below, showing the extent of the Russian MoD’s red shading translated onto a Google map, examined in conjunction with the map beneath that showing the arrangement of some of the settlements north of Kupyansk.
What we also find indicated in this information is that the Russians have overtaken “Vilshana” or Olshana, “Lyman Pershyi”, or (to the author’s best understanding) Liman Perviy, and Masyutovka, which is the settlement without a label in the centre of the simple map. If this is indeed the case, it vindicates the intuition expressed in abovementioned previous article regarding how these settlements were liable to fall “as a matter of course” by dint of the sealing of the east bank of the river with the capture of Dvurechnoye (“Dvorichne”) and Grianikovka (“Hryanykivka”) – announced liberated on 10th and 18th February respectively.
The new understanding of the position of the line representing the extent of Russian control would certainly explain the seemingly direct fighting at Sinkovka, again discussed in the said previous article.
Having said that, it’s worth being cautious at this time: the red shading on Russian MoD maps has been known to bleed – if one can put it like that – around its edges so that the next time one looks it has a tighter definition, and therefore is not as extended as it once seemed. Back to the other hand, however, the new detail is not the least bit random when it comes to setting a course for the line so it forms a border to coincide neatly with three settlements. Let us just say (quite obviously) that confirmation will come, or not, with further information.
For now, the following is a summary of Russian reporting, since 12th February, of incidents in the vicinity of the key settlements involved in this potentially significant development. The intention of the presentation is to offer an opportunity to discern within it the story of the Russian situation, if one sees the strategic significance of Masyutivka as a bounding territory between the east and west sides of the river. While some reports suggest wholly stand-off attacking, others indicate direct ground attack with stand-off support. The difference is to be detected in the language used by the Russian MoD, which is reproduced here without alteration (although the statements have been reordered and abridged for variety and easier reading). There will be an indication in bold lettering when the author thinks a direct ground element is being said to be involved.
Complimentary to this information is the Institute for the Study of War’s assessment for 16th February that cites a report by the Center for Defense Strategies, a Ukrainian think-tank, stating “that Russian forces entered Lyman Pershyi, advanced to the Synkivka area, and attacked Masyutivka”.
12th February: There is an attack by Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces on the 14th and 92nd Ukrainian mechanised brigades near Gryanikovka, Dvurechnaya (“Dvorichna”), Pershotravnevoye (“Pershotravneve”) and Masyutovka.
14th February: Fire damage is inflicted on manpower and military hardware of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Dvurechnaya by Ground-Attack and Army aviation and artillery of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces.
15th February: Manpower and military hardware of the 14th Mechanised Brigade and 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade of the AFU suffers fire damage by Army Aviation and artillery of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces in a location close to Dvurechnaya.
16th February: Active operations by Units and artillery of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces results in the neutralisation of manpower and military hardware of the AFU near Dvurechnaya and Olshana.
18th February: Manpower and hardware of the AFU is neutralised near Zapadnoye and Masyutovka by Ground-Attack and use of Army aviation and artillery.
20th February: Artillery operations and active action of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces results in the neutralisation of the enemy manpower and hardware near Masyutovka.
21st February: Active operations, by the units of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces, supported by Army Aviation and artillery, results in the neutralisation of units of the AFU near Sinkovka.
22nd February: Enemy manpower near Masyutovka suffers at the hands of artillery operations, and active action of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces.
Update, 25/02/2023:
The information shown in the map at the top of the page was repeated in the Russian MoD briefing of 24th February.
