Archive: UKIP and the magic 10%; the writing is on the wall for the LibLabCon

First published 16 October 2011; Luikkerland site.

The reader might know already that in the Meopham North council ward by-election held last Thursday, the UKIP candidate, Geoffrey Clark, came in second behind the Conservative. The obvious indicator of our (by which I mean anyone who has joined in the fight against the LibLabCon) progress was the percentage of the vote for Clark. He scored 34%. The Conservative Party delusional-backwoodsman/Progressive-fundamentalist (a Tory, these days, is one or the other) scored 47%. On the last occasion the same electorate were asked to go to the polls in May of this year – 71.1% expressed a preference for the Tories, and the rest voted for Labour.

I suppose that there will be a tendency to rationalise the UKIP success as a local anomaly. I understand that Geoffrey Clark has stood as a candidate before (not as a UKIP man), and there are special circumstances at play in Meopham that could provoke Conservatives to switch their vote: Meopham is at risk of being impacted by the Coalition’s green belt building proposals. In the Survation survey ahead of the election, 52% of the respondents said that they thought UKIP would be the party most likely to be against green belt housing expansion. To be fair, it is quite evident that the peculiarities unique to the circumstances of the election could inspire a local one-off spike for UKIP.

So, it is just as well that Survation did their poll (and I understand that small affairs like the Meopham North by-election wouldn’t usually justify the exercise, so it was doubly fortunate), because one of the questions put to respondents asked them to identify which way they would vote in a general election. When those who didn’t know, would not vote, and refused to say are disregarded, and the responses indicating a choice were considered on their own, UKIP received 11% of the “votes”.

As far as I am concerned, this is the most significant figure that emerges from either the opinion poll or the election itself, and before expounding on why this is the case, let’s first establish how accurately it reflects a real-life scenario.

Using the same technique of discarding responses other than those expressing a preference (instead of apportioning them to the candidates per previous election results – the reason why, or so it seems to me, that certain opinion polls cannot be accurate when there is a fundamental shift of support in politics), the Survation poll predicted that UKIP would get 26% of the vote in the Meopham North by-election. As it turns out, it was a prediction that understated the level of support for UKIP.

What it suggests is that the figure of 11% for UKIP in a national election is itself an underestimation; it suggests that the real level of support in Meopham for UKIP in a general election would evidently be more. The actual amount is irrelevant for my immediate purposes, the important idea to impart is that UKIP numbers are increasing past 10%. There is further significance to this, and Survation conveniently provides the background to why this is the case:

Meopham North is a council ward located in the parliamentary constituency of Gravesham, a seat that the Conservatives have held since 2005 (previously a Labour seat since 1997).

The constituency and its predecessor the Gravesend constituency have been called a Bellwether constituency; until the 2005 general election, they had voted for the winning party in each election since the 1951 general election, and in each election since World War I other than the 1929 general election. In the 1929 and 1951 elections, they voted for the party with the largest share of the vote nationally.

Here, at last, is where we get to the point of this article; in short, Meopham North is part of a Westminster constituency that can mirror a national political mood, and the picture that it is throwing back to us is one where UKIP has reached a crucial 10%-of-people-support figure, and are indeed sailing past it. Exactly why 10% is so important is something that I wrote about before [in an article entitled “Is the UK ship of state on the verge of tipping over on and sinking the LibLabCon?” – no link available to that story, but the idea is explained here]; to summarise, it represents a watershed in the rise of a new political idea. It is when a group that subscribes to a movement reaches a critical weight in the body politic. When 10% of the people are convinced of an idea, then it will inevitably, unstoppably spread and dominate the rest of the body politic.

With confidence we can say to the LibLabCon criminals currently in power that your time is up. UKIP are about to get a share of what is perceived to be legitimate power (as shaped by the Establishment) through the due process, and it is going to be devastating for the LibLabCon criminals. When that happens, UKIP won’t be ignored, not got rid of, and the demand for change that drove their progress won’t stop there. UKIP might not automatically begin the processes whereby LibLabCon politicians go to jail for their treachery, and their war crime, but there are thousands of us who will be petitioning for justice. UKIP might not automatically institute the measures that reverse 20 years of deliberate damage by Progressive government, but there are plenty of us who know what the remedies are, and we will petition to see them implemented.

If you are a mainline superficial LibLabCon who likes to vote for the winning team (as opposed to a Progressive zealot and operative, who by rights should go to jail), you have to realise that your team is heading for the dustbin of history, and eternal stigmatisation and denigration. We’re going to look upon the LibLabCon as a black-hearted tyranny that should not have darkened the shores of these islands; a stain on our reputation. The main protaganists in the foisting upon us of LibLabCon Marxism will have likenesses made that will stand next to the one of Hitler in the dungeon of Tussauds. Your team is going to lose, and ours is going to win, and justice will be raised up, and corruption will be laid low. You should leave your sinking ship while you can; the sooner we can start the new constitutional era, the better.